Strikeforce Fight Card: Alistair Overeem vs. Fabricio Werdum

With the second round of the Strikeforce Heavyweight World Grand Prix taking place this Saturday at the American Airlines Centre in Dallas, Texas, I thought I would take an attempt at handicapping the headline bout.

(Photo courtesy of bjjheroes.com)

Fabrico "Vai Cavalo" Werdum has undergone a renaissance recently starting with his Unanimous Decision win over Antonio "Big Foot" Silva . After weathering a harrowing first round knockdown, Werdum rallied back over two rounds, winning the decision based primarily on a strong clinch game and controlling Silva whenever the fight went to the ground. However it didn't show us anything we didn't know about Werdum already, namely when he hits, he can hit hard and he has a superlative BJJ game. However he was still content to windmill his punches and rely on non-existent head movement in an attempt to dodge punches. His chin saved him from a potential first round (T)KO. Still, he did enough to convice the judges to award the last two rounds and that is what mattered.

The fight that followed against Fedor Emelianenko has been thoroughly dissected for me to be able to largely skip it, save for me to add I believe his win was a result due more to Fedor's laziness than any game planning on Werdum's part. Yes, the fight got to the ground but only as a result of a huge knock down by Fedor. Still, a champion wins by any means and crucially he managed to lock in the armbar/triangle which led to the tap 'seen around the world'. Another (un)important consideration is that for one rare time the MMAth has even worked out. Werdum beat Silva, Werdum beat Fedor, Silva beat Fedor. Therefore Werdum>Silva>Fedor. How neat!

(photo courtesy of watchkalibrun.com).

Alistair 'The Reem' Overeem is enjoying both a 10 fight win streak in MMA as well as winning the K-1 World Grand Prix. That essentially makes him the best striker in (Heavyweight) MMA today. Yet for all this he is still considered by many a somewhat unknown product. His recent MMA wins have all come against strikers, and all of whom were either not very good (Rogers, Hunt, Thompson), should not have been in the ring (Goodridge, Fujita) or were relatively untested themselves (Duffee). However, I would argue that his K-1 win shows that we need not question his striking. So the argument against Overeem centres on his grappling.

Yet even here he is a largely proven article. His early wins came from a mixture of his BJJ game and stand-up and he won the ADCC Euro Championships (2005). He still trains his grappling as evinced by his recent training videos. It is just that we haven not seen it because his striking is so much better. We still know he has a wicked guillotine, but I am betting now his BJJ will have become primarily defensive, allowing him to stall or sweep with a view to standing the fight back up.

So who is the favourite?

I am going to have to go with Overeem and in a huge way here. If Silva and Fedor can knock Werdum down, Overeem will knock him down just by looking at him. Furthermore Overeem will not be silly enough to follow him to the ground and will be content to beckon him to stand time and time again until he is KO'd. Werdum can only win this on the ground and there is no way he is shooting a power double. That means he can only rely on trips from the clinch, and Overeems biggest strength is the clinch game. Just ask Fujita and Buentello. Overeem is too big, too strong and too good to allow such a one dimensional fighter to take the victory.